We’re back with part two of our discussion on the book Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke.
In the first episode, we established in the inescapable certainty of uncertainty. This next portion of the book goes into what to do about it, and a few ways we can make better long-term decisions, despite not having all of the information we might need to be sure.
Things mentioned in this episode:
This week’s episode is sponsored by:
- CuriosityStream (+ Nebula!):CuriosityStream is the best place on the internet for high-quality documentaries, and it now comes with access to this podcast and a ton of other great content, ad-free, on Nebula.
If you use the link curiositystream.com/inforiumpod you’ll also get 26% off your first annual subscription.
- Brilliant: Accelerate your learning in math, science, and computer science. Start learning for free at Brilliant.org/Inforium — and if you’re one of the first 200 people to use this link, you’ll also get 20% off your subscription.
Other things we mentioned in this episode:
- Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke
- Thinking In Bets: How to Become Comfortable With Uncertainty (Ep. 18)
- Tom’s Notion course
- Wendover Productions on YouTube
- Real Engineering on YouTube
- MKBHD on YouTube
- Listen Money Matters
- The Dip: How to Know When to Quit (Ep. 202)
Want more cool stuff? You can find all sorts of great tools at my Resources page.
- 0:00:00 – Intro
- 0:01:47 – What Martin’s been up to
- 0:12:29 – What Tom’s been up to
- 0:14:43 – Making decisions in accordance with your imagined future
- 0:27:36 – Sponsor: CuriosityStream (Watching documentaries)
- 0:29:46 – Sponsor: Brilliant (Learning problem-solving skills)
- 0:31:10 – Feeling like it’s too late to start
- 0:41:34 – Ulysses contracts
- 0:50:29 – Not confusing good outcomes with good decisions
- 0:57:38 – Backcasting and premortems
- 1:13:44 – Conclusion
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