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Thinking In Bets: How to Make Decisions You Won’t Regret (Ep. 20)

We’re back with part two of our discussion on the book Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke.

In the first episode, we established in the inescapable certainty of uncertainty. This next portion of the book goes into what to do about it, and a few ways we can make better long-term decisions, despite not having all of the information we might need to be sure.

Things mentioned in this episode:

This week’s episode is sponsored by:

  • CuriosityStream (+ Nebula!):CuriosityStream is the best place on the internet for high-quality documentaries, and it now comes with access to this podcast and a ton of other great content, ad-free, on Nebula.
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Other things we mentioned in this episode:

Want more cool stuff? You can find all sorts of great tools at my Resources page.


  • 0:00:00 – Intro
  • 0:01:47 – What Martin’s been up to
  • 0:12:29 – What Tom’s been up to
  • 0:14:43 – Making decisions in accordance with your imagined future
  • 0:27:36 – Sponsor: CuriosityStream (Watching documentaries)
  • 0:29:46 – Sponsor: Brilliant (Learning problem-solving skills)
  • 0:31:10 – Feeling like it’s too late to start
  • 0:41:34 – Ulysses contracts
  • 0:50:29 – Not confusing good outcomes with good decisions
  • 0:57:38 – Backcasting and premortems
  • 1:13:44 – Conclusion

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